The Next Oil Boom Is Happening Here

Just as the U.S. shale industry is slowing down, oil production in other non-OPEC countries is on the rise.

Output in U.S. shale grew substantially in 2019, although at a slower rate than in years past. More importantly, as investors lose interest and capital markets become unfriendly, shale E&Ps are going to have an increasingly difficult time financing drilling outside of their own cash flow. As companies are forced to cutback in the pursuit of positive cash flow, supply growth will likely slow even further.

For the last few years, global supply balances often centered on the pace of demand growth versus the pace of U.S. shale growth. Chronic supply surpluses occurred because shale grew much faster than consumers could digest it. OPEC+ felt compelled to cut back several times – and on an ongoing basis – in order to try to balance out the difference.

Going into 2020, however, other countries are joining the supply growth mix, just as U.S. shale taps the brakes. “On the one hand, mature areas have seen small and large scale project additions, leading to multi-year highs in the Norwegian North Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and Brazil,” JBC Energy wrote in a note. Oil companies continue to funnel money into Norway and the Gulf of Mexico because they have cut costs, while in Brazil new pre-salt fields come online.